The Borno Succession Puzzle: How Zulum, Shettima, and the Engineers Are Shaping 2027

By Liman Amsami Alkali

Drawing from the authoritative work Political Succession in Nigeria, edited by Dr. Otive Igbuzor, which argues that political succession is perhaps the most important type of leadership transition because it directly affects the stability, survival, and development of nations, I wish to examine the ongoing succession crisis unfolding in Borno State. 

Governor Professor Babagana Umara Zulum now faces the most defining political battle of his second term—the choice of a successor—amidst fierce resistance from the camp of Vice President Kashim Shettima.

The contest currently features several key figures. From the Vice President's side, Senator Abubakar Kyari, the incumbent Minister of Agriculture, stands as Shettima's preferred candidate, while Senator Kaka Shehu Lawan, who represents Borno Central, also has his own political structure. 

However, the Vice President's clear preference for Kyari has created a noticeable distance between Shettima and Kaka Shehu's loyalists. From Governor Zulum's side, three engineer-technocrats initially emerged: Engr. Babe, the immediate past Executive Secretary of BOGIS, was the governor's first choice; Engr. Lawan Wakilbe, the immediate past Commissioner of Education, was the second choice; and Engr. Mustapha Gubio, the immediate past Commissioner of Works and Housing, was the third choice.

What is remarkable is how the VP's camp outrightly rejected both Babe and Wakilbe, which by process of elimination has elevated Mustapha Gubio from third position to the governor's current preferred candidate.

Just last week, a critical stakeholders' meeting took place, chaired by Governor Zulum and attended by loyalists from both camps, with one glaring exception Senator Kaka Shehu Lawan was absent. His absence was not coincidental but rather a calculated protest against the governor's handling of the succession process. 

The meeting produced two clear outcomes. First, both President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Shettima endorsed the governor for a second term but made no endorsement regarding his successor. Second, the governor himself admitted that consultation is still ongoing, acknowledging that the atmosphere did not permit a final decision. This public admission of deadlock is significant in Borno's closed political culture.

In a recent development, President Tinubu met with all APC state governors and gave them a clear mandate all contenders must liaise with their respective state governors to simplify their ambitions. While this directive strengthens Governor Zulum's hand as the owner of the state structure, it also reminds him of the reality that the Vice President has less control within Borno and only enjoys the support of federal appointees.

What further complicates matters is the established tradition in the state. Former Governor Ali Modu Sheriff endorsed his successor, now Vice President Kashim Shettima, without any hitches. Similarly, Governor Shettima endorsed his successor, Professor Zulum, without crisis. The expectation now is that Zulum will follow this same tradition, but the difference is stark Sheriff and Shettima enjoyed unified party structures, whereas Zulum faces a Vice President who has not yet surrendered control over Borno's political architecture.

Several factors suggest that Engr. Mustapha Gubio will eventually emerge as the anointed candidate. The rejection sequence has eliminated Babe and Wakilbe, leaving Gubio as the only candidate from the governor's shortlist not explicitly vetoed by the VP's camp. Governor Zulum has demonstrated that he will not concede the succession to Shettima's preferred candidate without a fight, and Gubio represents a compromise a technocrat like Zulum himself, with executive experience. 

Additionally, President Tinubu's directive that governors should lead the succession process has somewhat weakened the Vice President's ability to impose Kyari.

However, the task before Governor Zulum remains considerable. He must revisit his seven-year period and find a way to lure almost all the loyalists of the Vice President into his camp, compensating them adequately for their support. At the same time, he must revive his own loyalists who have grown weary, uncertain of their fate after 2027. A clear signal that Gubio is the candidate, accompanied by a roadmap for inclusion, will re-energize the governor's base. 

More critically, I must explain to the governor that the remaining period of his second tenure is for the politicians—it is no longer a period of merit, engineers, or technocrats. Zulum rose to power on a ticket of competence and project execution, but succession is a different game entirely. It requires deal-making, compromise, and the strategic deployment of patronage. The governor must now prioritize political consolidation over technocratic perfection.

The Centre LSD's communiqué once called on all democratic organizations and institutions to rise to their duties and responsibilities to ensure smooth and peaceful transition. Borno State now stands at a precipice. If Zulum successfully navigates this crisis and Gubio emerges as the consensus candidate or any candidate who commands both the governor's support and the Vice President's grudging acceptance it will reinforce Borno's reputation for orderly transitions. If the crisis escalates, with Senator Kaka Shehu Lawan remaining in protest and Shettima's camp refusing to yield, Borno could face its first major intra-party rupture since 2003. 

The coming weeks will reveal whether the state's political class prioritizes stability over raw ambition.

By Liman Amsami Alkali

Department of General Studies, Mohamet Lawan College of Agriculture, Maiduguri